* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 16 16 11 19 24 27 36 39 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 20 14 8 5 7 13 8 3 3 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 330 324 332 338 356 335 300 289 337 1 7 5 4 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 154 154 155 155 154 149 142 136 129 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 48 47 49 47 48 45 43 42 44 39 37 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 25 36 45 36 30 6 -16 -35 -64 -67 -96 -107 200 MB DIV 17 14 16 13 21 23 20 -28 -38 -76 -75 -31 -19 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 4 3 3 1 10 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1554 1555 1556 1556 1555 1545 1545 1586 1613 1652 1727 1843 1882 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 122.6 122.5 122.6 122.6 122.9 123.6 124.8 126.2 127.8 129.5 131.5 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 0 1 1 4 6 8 9 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 26 26 29 35 27 18 10 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -17. -18. -22. -25. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##