* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 83 82 80 74 72 65 55 41 36 28 17 V (KT) LAND 90 86 83 82 80 74 72 65 55 41 36 28 17 V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 81 79 77 77 79 74 62 50 43 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 14 10 20 20 36 49 53 43 27 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -1 2 7 3 10 4 8 1 1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 246 236 243 232 222 252 240 254 249 260 269 277 266 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.7 23.3 21.5 17.1 15.3 14.4 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 131 129 130 131 126 99 91 78 73 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 116 112 109 111 114 112 91 84 74 70 67 67 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -51.2 -50.0 -50.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 63 59 56 54 56 57 51 46 48 46 53 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 35 36 37 36 40 41 42 38 41 39 34 850 MB ENV VOR 125 106 104 105 90 67 72 104 142 158 150 146 135 200 MB DIV 55 47 23 28 46 10 64 64 68 62 56 15 44 700-850 TADV 35 18 18 14 8 19 -31 18 15 14 58 93 73 LAND (KM) 958 961 971 906 853 762 782 668 962 1463 1262 809 570 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.8 33.9 34.9 35.8 37.6 39.4 41.3 43.5 45.5 47.5 50.0 53.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.0 65.4 64.8 64.1 60.9 55.8 49.4 41.7 33.9 26.4 21.4 18.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 13 19 24 28 30 29 24 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 3 6 5 4 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -23. -30. -37. -42. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. -1. 1. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -16. -18. -25. -35. -49. -54. -62. -73. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 7( 26) 5( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)