* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 27 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 27 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 24 23 22 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 18 22 21 20 25 27 26 28 28 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 2 -3 0 1 2 0 2 -1 -2 -9 -2 SHEAR DIR 49 31 25 21 35 33 44 60 93 109 129 136 138 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 138 135 132 130 128 126 124 125 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 120 118 115 114 113 112 111 108 107 107 107 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 46 52 58 59 59 58 54 48 47 44 43 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -72 -62 -74 -69 -67 -81 -110 -126 -106 -102 -112 -92 200 MB DIV 0 3 -11 -3 13 -18 -13 -33 -17 -8 -9 -4 -7 700-850 TADV 0 5 3 1 0 4 4 9 4 2 8 1 2 LAND (KM) 1661 1718 1776 1845 1914 1999 1955 1939 2027 2207 2113 1982 1929 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.7 30.5 30.9 30.6 30.0 29.2 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 52.2 51.8 51.1 50.5 49.0 47.3 44.8 41.4 38.2 36.1 35.0 34.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 8 10 13 14 12 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 9 6 4 2 2 17 11 11 14 16 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED