* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 38 40 40 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 38 40 40 43 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 9 18 24 21 15 18 12 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 13 8 5 5 3 4 8 7 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 255 311 329 279 262 256 266 258 254 263 261 256 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 150 150 148 153 158 163 163 162 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 153 154 154 151 157 160 163 159 155 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 12 12 11 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 67 67 69 65 69 69 71 74 75 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 -13 -25 -26 -12 -21 -24 -29 -42 -46 -43 -58 200 MB DIV 131 135 109 59 26 15 19 21 35 31 59 51 38 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -13 -5 -1 3 2 -6 2 1 9 -12 -5 LAND (KM) 1457 1343 1239 1166 1111 1001 943 906 751 737 569 414 335 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.6 16.9 18.3 19.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.7 41.1 42.5 43.8 45.2 47.8 50.6 53.5 56.1 58.3 60.3 61.9 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 24 26 33 32 47 67 70 70 58 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 15. 18. 19. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)