* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 46 53 53 50 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 46 53 53 50 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 39 41 43 43 40 36 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 15 14 9 6 19 27 24 15 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 3 0 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 86 82 86 78 76 95 173 190 217 206 238 233 237 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.2 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 153 149 146 143 140 136 127 125 120 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 74 74 71 64 61 64 65 65 59 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 19 21 20 20 21 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 72 69 70 83 112 134 117 88 38 24 -8 200 MB DIV 84 59 69 75 53 35 60 71 59 35 10 35 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 604 576 548 517 487 428 415 423 472 586 814 1017 1207 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.4 21.6 23.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 154.9 155.0 155.0 154.9 154.7 153.7 152.6 151.6 150.6 149.2 147.3 146.1 145.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 5 7 7 6 8 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 23 24 27 31 22 31 18 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 18. 18. 15. 12. 10. 7. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##