* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 29 36 44 53 59 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 29 36 44 53 59 66 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 42 54 70 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 10 8 5 6 5 5 3 8 12 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 9 7 8 8 6 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 156 156 152 167 161 192 228 171 118 83 57 74 42 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 165 165 170 173 173 172 171 170 168 167 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 55 57 60 61 63 68 68 67 69 70 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 166 161 161 154 147 146 142 138 127 134 124 126 134 200 MB DIV -9 5 0 0 9 8 7 18 7 12 26 8 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 8 4 2 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1753 1793 1836 1902 1971 2112 4169 3954 3754 3559 3365 3201 3040 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 15.7 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 171.9 172.6 173.3 174.3 175.2 177.3 180.1 182.8 185.4 188.1 191.0 193.2 195.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 9 9 10 12 14 13 13 13 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 55 65 65 57 55 86 90 93 100 103 104 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 4. 11. 19. 28. 34. 41. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##