* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP992015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 51 56 53 46 36 27 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 51 56 53 46 36 27 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 33 38 41 40 36 30 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 10 14 7 8 33 49 48 44 42 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 1 -5 -7 2 8 2 SHEAR DIR 37 33 32 28 35 72 251 232 241 247 271 265 252 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.1 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.1 23.3 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 149 145 135 126 125 125 118 102 80 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 69 70 68 67 65 64 59 53 51 49 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 12 13 15 15 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 8 14 21 59 99 97 43 -18 -69 -89 -129 200 MB DIV 94 84 67 56 28 25 81 77 45 17 54 102 81 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 8 13 16 56 20 0 LAND (KM) 1441 1383 1325 1272 1221 1121 1019 956 975 1083 1359 1768 1048 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.4 18.2 20.5 22.6 24.7 27.7 32.2 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.6 143.8 144.1 144.3 144.7 145.2 145.7 146.0 145.9 144.8 141.3 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 11 11 13 22 32 36 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 19 20 16 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. -3. -12. -19. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 26. 31. 28. 21. 11. 3. -5. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP992015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP992015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##