* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 24 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 17 15 13 22 18 27 31 38 35 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 8 6 8 11 14 7 5 1 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 318 325 336 346 347 308 284 303 356 4 13 20 50 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 154 156 154 152 146 141 136 131 127 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 48 46 44 41 43 41 40 35 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 45 41 34 29 -9 -16 -36 -60 -86 -111 -126 200 MB DIV 12 8 13 17 30 18 -2 -42 -51 -77 -38 -28 -14 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 4 5 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1548 1548 1549 1536 1523 1521 1556 1598 1626 1694 1803 1947 2040 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 122.5 122.4 122.5 122.5 123.0 124.1 125.4 126.8 128.4 130.3 132.4 134.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 2 3 5 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 27 28 32 34 21 15 9 7 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -15. -15. -17. -22. -27. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##