* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP952015 10/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 49 55 59 62 66 56 57 51 33 36 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -7 -5 -4 -9 -6 -2 -6 0 3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 207 213 221 226 224 236 237 248 241 257 255 255 254 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.1 29.5 28.3 25.5 23.4 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 173 168 161 148 119 97 80 68 65 65 76 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 -54.2 -55.2 -56.7 -56.9 -56.4 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 4 4 1 2 0 3 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 57 58 55 51 55 64 69 67 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -36 -45 -55 -58 -37 -34 -41 -29 7 42 53 26 200 MB DIV 74 59 56 34 17 23 28 39 31 53 15 9 -7 700-850 TADV 6 11 17 19 16 23 9 19 12 44 -6 -7 -26 LAND (KM) 45 -104 -252 -388 -532 -626 -677 -763 -932 -999 -999 -999 -585 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.6 30.8 32.7 34.7 37.0 38.9 40.1 40.5 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 106.5 105.8 105.1 104.4 102.7 101.4 100.1 99.3 97.7 94.0 88.1 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 12 11 12 12 13 18 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 38 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 20. 22. 21. 20. 18. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -13. -30. -51. -68. -78. -86. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -10. -21. -35. -46. -52. -57. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 MARTY 10/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 MARTY 10/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##