* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 72 70 68 65 63 57 46 34 29 22 17 V (KT) LAND 80 75 72 70 68 65 63 57 46 34 29 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 70 68 68 70 73 67 56 46 40 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 12 9 17 16 31 43 53 50 38 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 7 2 4 8 4 4 -2 -4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 244 250 233 215 234 261 238 254 261 263 286 286 246 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.2 22.7 20.3 17.2 16.0 15.3 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 129 128 130 130 121 96 86 78 74 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 109 108 112 115 110 89 80 73 70 66 64 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -50.3 -51.1 -52.2 -53.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 55 54 54 58 54 50 47 48 51 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 37 36 37 40 42 40 36 37 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 110 104 103 82 63 70 80 110 143 150 134 145 126 200 MB DIV 43 36 24 49 36 32 63 66 33 45 30 14 17 700-850 TADV 19 28 16 4 14 8 -29 -24 2 -13 57 74 55 LAND (KM) 986 999 933 902 838 799 744 806 1276 1662 1095 704 482 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.6 34.6 35.4 36.2 38.1 40.0 41.6 43.1 44.9 47.0 48.8 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.2 64.7 63.8 63.0 59.2 53.2 45.9 37.7 30.1 23.3 18.8 16.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 14 21 27 30 30 27 22 14 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 0. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -23. -34. -46. -51. -58. -63. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 3( 13) 2( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)