* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 21 21 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 16 13 17 15 23 28 28 35 30 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 0 1 3 0 5 0 -1 3 -7 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 54 41 40 58 61 55 62 84 107 106 118 125 141 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 138 136 133 132 131 130 130 130 129 130 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 119 117 114 115 115 115 115 112 109 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 58 58 58 60 56 53 47 45 43 40 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -67 -79 -75 -67 -76 -92 -121 -99 -85 -82 -77 -73 200 MB DIV -16 0 9 10 -26 -5 -16 -26 -7 -4 1 0 -1 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 -1 0 0 5 2 6 5 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1708 1779 1850 1932 2015 2083 2061 2107 2259 2132 1984 1935 1929 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.2 27.5 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 51.3 50.7 49.9 49.1 47.4 45.3 42.4 39.1 36.7 35.4 35.1 35.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 9 11 13 13 9 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 5 4 3 4 4 4 17 1 1 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/05/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED