* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 46 51 55 54 51 50 45 39 36 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 46 51 55 54 51 50 45 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 47 49 50 49 45 39 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 14 11 11 12 18 21 21 15 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 5 1 -1 -3 -1 1 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 87 88 76 82 91 114 160 194 205 218 232 251 260 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 153 151 151 148 145 142 138 132 127 123 117 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 73 76 76 75 70 66 63 61 60 57 47 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 21 22 23 22 22 24 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 79 74 70 75 79 108 137 126 99 66 27 -8 -38 200 MB DIV 60 64 72 60 43 53 77 52 63 14 39 -3 -3 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 3 1 -5 -2 0 3 2 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 595 569 543 508 475 434 452 476 528 650 845 1049 1257 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.9 20.7 22.9 25.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 154.8 154.7 154.6 154.3 154.0 153.1 151.9 150.8 149.8 148.7 147.5 146.5 145.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 22 23 30 22 30 25 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 7. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 14. 11. 10. 5. -1. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##