* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 21 24 27 30 31 32 32 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 21 24 27 30 31 32 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 20 16 16 14 12 18 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 4 3 4 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 156 178 197 219 216 224 222 220 249 263 264 266 270 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 165 165 166 165 161 154 147 139 137 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 57 55 52 51 51 53 55 55 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 142 129 106 98 63 43 16 1 -29 -56 -74 -77 200 MB DIV 14 7 -13 -15 -2 -7 -4 1 14 32 11 37 26 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 3 8 9 6 5 6 7 4 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1724 1720 1726 1765 1812 1974 4138 3874 3583 3313 3101 2917 2757 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 13.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 17.3 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.4 24.0 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 172.3 173.1 173.8 174.8 175.7 178.0 180.7 183.7 186.4 188.7 190.5 192.2 194.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 13 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 64 51 54 59 49 77 68 62 56 46 43 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##