* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP992015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 38 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 38 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 28 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 16 18 13 17 37 52 55 43 34 49 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 -1 0 1 -2 -5 3 5 10 10 SHEAR DIR 31 27 16 11 3 296 248 242 235 253 254 250 229 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.5 24.4 22.7 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 147 143 133 128 126 124 120 112 97 71 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 70 67 62 56 53 53 55 59 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 19 43 67 76 113 108 82 42 0 8 -77 -39 200 MB DIV 72 61 47 19 36 60 51 33 -8 5 79 88 113 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -3 0 -4 12 22 14 28 27 22 -1 LAND (KM) 1284 1201 1121 1030 944 804 756 808 893 1053 1402 1641 983 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 18.6 20.9 22.7 24.4 26.4 29.6 34.5 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 144.5 145.0 145.4 145.9 146.4 147.2 147.7 147.8 147.9 147.6 146.0 141.4 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 14 24 34 37 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 19 22 24 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -16. -25. -31. -38. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 11. 5. -4. -13. -19. -26. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##