* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 17 16 21 25 21 23 35 30 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 11 4 4 2 -2 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 327 341 349 338 318 291 284 339 1 16 29 39 65 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 153 151 148 144 139 134 130 127 127 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 46 47 44 44 43 39 35 30 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 22 18 22 0 -21 -29 -50 -61 -92 -97 -114 200 MB DIV 14 5 13 24 15 19 -33 -35 -65 -53 -70 -51 -17 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 2 3 2 3 3 7 -1 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1490 1473 1456 1439 1422 1421 1443 1459 1483 1558 1667 1795 1947 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 121.8 121.8 121.9 122.0 122.8 123.9 125.2 126.5 127.9 129.5 131.1 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 26 27 27 32 25 10 8 5 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -18. -21. -22. -25. -31. -35. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##