* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 24 25 24 22 20 19 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 24 25 24 22 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 23 24 24 23 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 21 15 16 12 12 22 24 30 31 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 3 0 3 5 -1 2 0 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 47 67 70 61 79 74 87 89 99 110 134 176 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 138 136 133 133 130 130 129 129 127 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 119 117 115 116 116 117 114 112 109 107 106 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 56 52 47 44 43 41 40 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -85 -87 -76 -81 -100 -111 -91 -76 -71 -87 -75 -66 200 MB DIV -6 5 15 -18 -23 -1 -15 -22 -9 -1 -1 0 5 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 1 2 0 10 -7 14 -1 7 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1742 1810 1878 1961 2044 2070 2060 2157 2202 1951 1773 1664 1570 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.7 29.5 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.3 27.6 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 50.9 50.3 49.5 48.7 47.0 44.3 40.7 37.2 34.7 33.1 32.2 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 10 14 16 13 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 4 4 4 1 15 14 16 2 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 INVEST 10/05/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED