* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 33 33 36 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 32 33 33 36 39 41 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 9 17 24 28 23 13 17 18 21 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 16 11 7 5 2 3 7 5 0 6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 54 271 260 257 257 263 262 253 264 275 264 248 249 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 150 150 155 160 164 163 161 160 159 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 156 153 154 160 163 165 160 155 151 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 66 68 65 69 68 70 73 74 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -35 -33 -21 -14 -18 -22 -29 -46 -48 -56 -79 -93 200 MB DIV 60 14 -1 -9 7 30 19 37 16 58 49 21 -2 700-850 TADV -10 -2 3 5 4 0 -6 1 1 -1 -14 -12 -4 LAND (KM) 1216 1135 1073 1017 968 912 853 692 683 466 281 196 233 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.4 14.3 15.5 16.7 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.6 44.1 45.5 46.8 48.2 51.1 54.0 56.8 59.2 61.3 63.1 64.7 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 15 14 14 12 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 29 33 32 32 48 68 75 73 69 77 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/05/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED