* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 52 54 53 49 43 40 33 21 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 52 54 53 49 43 40 33 21 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 51 52 53 54 54 50 43 36 30 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 13 12 4 9 14 20 20 14 13 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 83 84 91 94 105 191 215 219 259 251 257 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.2 25.8 24.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 150 147 144 140 131 127 124 113 100 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 74 73 65 60 54 49 44 39 36 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 19 18 19 19 17 16 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 71 64 74 83 95 122 148 110 70 24 -15 -65 -71 200 MB DIV 65 73 65 43 46 42 78 80 4 12 -11 32 10 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 3 2 -6 -2 0 6 10 1 17 -40 LAND (KM) 585 556 529 500 477 460 453 526 689 892 1138 1508 1748 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.9 17.0 18.5 20.6 22.9 25.5 28.4 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 154.7 154.5 154.3 153.9 153.5 152.6 151.4 149.9 148.3 147.0 145.8 143.5 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 6 7 9 12 13 13 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 25 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 9. 8. 4. -2. -5. -12. -24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##