* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 21 22 28 32 36 39 42 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 21 22 28 32 36 39 42 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 24 25 27 31 36 43 49 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 15 13 11 8 7 8 2 3 16 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 5 5 4 1 3 -3 -2 -7 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 139 154 176 191 206 242 172 206 196 154 244 271 264 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 170 170 170 170 167 165 164 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 56 56 57 57 59 59 60 60 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 167 156 146 135 122 91 76 50 45 24 17 4 -7 200 MB DIV 21 -4 0 2 -10 19 12 3 21 31 19 2 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 4 5 3 4 3 2 3 1 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1907 1933 1965 2028 2098 4234 4063 3786 3497 3233 2995 2773 2539 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.8 17.1 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 173.9 174.8 175.7 176.9 178.0 180.8 183.7 186.5 189.1 191.5 193.8 196.2 198.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 13 14 16 15 14 13 12 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 58 61 59 69 78 89 88 86 86 84 72 67 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##