* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP992015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 15 13 24 50 60 54 48 52 54 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 -1 -3 3 -3 -4 1 7 9 9 -2 SHEAR DIR 8 4 359 342 323 273 238 235 245 270 265 266 259 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.3 26.1 25.7 24.7 23.2 21.3 19.2 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 144 140 128 126 122 113 99 81 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 67 68 59 52 49 53 57 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -1 18 35 62 105 104 27 -26 -77 -93 -106 -95 200 MB DIV 57 33 19 27 42 84 97 68 56 72 69 77 100 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -2 2 1 7 19 29 41 47 76 15 60 LAND (KM) 1335 1264 1198 1130 1069 963 1021 1221 1548 1676 1063 476 63 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.5 17.4 19.9 22.8 25.6 28.4 31.8 35.9 40.0 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 143.7 144.0 144.3 144.6 144.9 145.6 145.6 144.9 143.0 139.8 135.1 129.9 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 11 14 14 15 19 25 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 20 15 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 21. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -10. -22. -33. -43. -52. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -16. -28. -40. -52. -63. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##