* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 17 19 22 15 18 33 43 35 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 9 8 11 9 6 3 -1 -3 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 337 343 329 310 303 291 305 343 5 32 50 69 99 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 152 148 146 140 135 130 127 126 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 46 44 43 41 37 32 30 26 21 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 21 24 20 -15 -24 -40 -53 -79 -100 -114 -121 200 MB DIV 15 10 23 21 14 -15 -50 -48 -83 -55 -41 -26 -13 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 3 1 1 7 6 3 0 -2 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1466 1444 1423 1417 1412 1421 1448 1458 1524 1623 1768 1923 2033 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.4 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 121.8 121.8 122.1 122.4 123.4 124.7 126.0 127.5 129.0 130.8 132.7 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 27 29 30 13 8 6 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -18. -24. -25. -28. -34. -40. -44. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942015 INVEST 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##