* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 70 70 70 66 53 38 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 70 70 70 66 53 38 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 74 74 75 77 70 56 45 37 32 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 17 20 19 26 39 48 47 45 42 47 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 2 2 2 12 6 9 1 1 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 211 222 248 241 238 248 260 274 294 303 292 262 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.2 22.4 20.8 19.3 18.9 17.6 17.3 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 121 123 125 121 94 88 82 79 74 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 104 106 110 108 86 82 77 74 69 66 64 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.5 -52.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 54 56 49 44 38 40 41 51 57 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 34 34 36 40 43 40 34 31 28 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 96 83 70 69 77 81 97 121 130 128 120 108 115 200 MB DIV 29 28 10 11 47 53 56 18 33 4 2 4 16 700-850 TADV 22 11 13 20 16 -9 -15 -7 12 39 41 33 15 LAND (KM) 923 895 830 794 792 822 818 1175 1728 1347 957 730 628 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.2 38.0 39.3 40.6 41.7 42.4 43.2 43.9 44.7 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 63.9 62.9 61.2 59.5 53.9 47.4 40.1 32.1 25.7 20.9 17.9 16.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 19 24 26 29 27 21 14 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -9. -22. -37. -48. -59. -70. -77. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)