* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 20 20 21 24 26 29 33 37 41 44 V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 20 20 21 24 26 29 33 37 41 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 21 22 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 12 22 24 22 22 19 19 17 20 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 18 10 3 0 3 5 4 0 3 9 3 0 SHEAR DIR 101 231 255 256 265 268 261 259 275 253 251 233 267 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 164 164 169 171 173 171 166 164 164 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 171 170 171 170 173 173 173 169 159 155 153 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 65 64 66 67 71 74 72 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -29 -17 -7 -5 -8 -17 -26 -36 -33 -61 -62 -91 200 MB DIV 16 3 -2 17 22 28 20 25 27 65 44 4 -6 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 2 2 -2 2 6 -1 -9 -22 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 1049 982 919 868 841 840 678 593 535 296 122 166 208 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 13.2 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.1 19.0 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.9 47.4 48.8 50.2 53.0 55.8 58.4 60.9 62.9 64.8 66.5 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 39 32 29 42 50 67 79 68 82 101 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 10. 17. 23. 28. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/05/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)