* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 55 55 52 44 36 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 55 55 52 44 36 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 50 51 51 48 41 33 24 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 13 9 8 12 17 27 16 20 22 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 8 10 9 SHEAR DIR 83 87 87 88 93 122 188 213 253 267 256 244 238 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.4 25.8 24.8 23.4 21.8 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 148 147 144 137 130 124 114 100 83 71 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 70 65 57 46 42 37 32 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 23 23 22 23 21 20 17 12 3 850 MB ENV VOR 70 78 92 105 119 145 132 75 41 -2 -56 -82 -98 200 MB DIV 72 68 48 59 55 79 75 46 7 -10 2 14 14 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 3 -1 -9 -4 3 14 13 -5 -8 -54 LAND (KM) 552 528 507 495 489 490 549 707 953 1316 1781 1486 1091 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 16.4 18.4 21.0 24.1 27.3 30.7 34.0 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 154.7 154.4 154.0 153.5 153.1 151.5 149.7 148.2 147.0 145.0 142.0 139.1 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 7 11 14 16 17 20 21 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -14. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 10. 7. -1. -9. -18. -32. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##