* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 32 37 40 43 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 25 32 37 40 43 44 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 43 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 12 12 5 7 5 12 15 22 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 0 3 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 147 168 182 210 243 236 190 191 245 246 266 284 288 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 165 165 167 165 163 159 155 151 152 158 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 56 59 57 58 59 61 59 60 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 163 152 143 128 124 77 53 35 10 -1 -25 -33 -30 200 MB DIV -3 -7 -2 -15 -5 23 0 -11 19 24 10 30 9 700-850 TADV -1 0 5 5 4 6 6 2 13 11 1 0 -24 LAND (KM) 1965 1990 2023 2093 2171 4165 3933 3595 3286 3010 2774 2544 2318 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 16.4 17.8 19.0 20.3 21.4 22.2 22.7 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 174.5 175.5 176.4 177.7 178.9 182.0 185.1 188.1 190.7 193.1 195.3 197.7 200.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 16 16 16 15 13 12 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 55 64 68 86 81 82 73 61 52 52 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##