* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP992015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 15 19 37 60 62 64 73 77 87 105 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -2 0 3 -3 0 2 -1 -2 -12 -38 SHEAR DIR 12 359 351 322 294 247 231 228 244 253 248 238 244 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.3 24.1 22.1 20.3 18.1 13.9 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 145 138 133 125 119 108 89 71 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 69 71 64 52 49 56 67 67 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 17 37 69 94 135 92 10 -38 -46 -5 -25 38 200 MB DIV 36 12 22 37 66 101 58 70 101 132 134 135 85 700-850 TADV -7 -2 2 2 0 22 26 35 50 72 23 80 46 LAND (KM) 1255 1171 1091 1002 927 896 1139 1525 1622 973 522 36 -503 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.6 18.8 22.3 25.8 29.2 33.3 38.5 44.0 49.3 53.2 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 144.6 145.0 145.5 146.0 146.7 146.0 144.0 140.3 135.4 130.8 126.5 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 16 17 18 23 29 33 31 28 25 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 13 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -4. -14. -29. -48. -67. -86.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -25. -40. -60. -77. -91. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##