* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 55 53 49 40 31 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 55 53 49 40 31 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 52 52 50 46 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 10 7 12 20 29 26 26 26 55 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 3 3 1 5 2 11 13 14 9 SHEAR DIR 102 85 89 95 88 148 203 220 252 249 251 237 242 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.3 25.5 24.4 22.9 21.4 20.2 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 146 145 140 130 122 110 95 79 67 65 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 71 69 64 50 43 41 41 33 31 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 25 22 22 20 18 14 12 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 97 108 127 137 145 88 49 17 -38 -65 -128 14 200 MB DIV 69 64 66 55 47 65 63 -14 -5 12 21 15 53 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 0 -6 -10 -6 -2 8 -9 -15 -18 23 LAND (KM) 517 490 468 476 484 555 745 1086 1491 1778 1335 929 626 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 17.9 21.3 24.9 28.5 31.8 34.7 38.3 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 154.0 153.7 153.3 152.6 151.8 149.8 147.9 146.0 143.8 141.1 137.7 134.8 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 11 15 20 20 20 20 20 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 21 19 26 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -23. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -29. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 5. 3. -1. -10. -19. -31. -45. -75. -86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##