* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 30 34 40 44 46 47 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 30 34 40 44 46 47 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 33 37 42 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 15 11 8 9 3 8 14 16 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 4 4 5 -2 2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 149 168 187 209 230 170 202 268 255 259 289 281 301 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 165 166 166 168 164 161 158 154 154 158 161 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 62 61 59 61 63 62 60 57 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 153 138 132 108 66 36 13 -14 -44 -47 -46 -25 200 MB DIV 18 18 8 15 23 17 -1 14 11 1 -4 10 -8 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 3 3 7 4 5 10 -2 -6 -22 -19 LAND (KM) 1958 1995 2043 2137 2242 4099 3781 3421 3128 2874 2627 2379 2132 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 17.0 18.4 19.8 20.9 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 174.5 175.7 176.8 178.3 179.8 183.2 186.4 189.5 192.1 194.5 197.2 200.1 203.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 16 17 18 18 17 15 13 12 13 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 60 55 58 65 68 85 82 75 67 59 55 52 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 5. 9. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##