* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP992015 10/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 17 20 25 43 58 72 79 76 70 73 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 0 6 6 0 -9 -17 -10 -9 -11 -7 SHEAR DIR 1 348 343 308 282 245 236 239 254 271 272 271 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.8 26.9 26.4 25.5 24.0 21.7 19.6 16.3 13.4 12.5 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 143 135 131 123 108 86 68 66 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -54.4 -55.9 -55.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 66 67 56 45 48 58 68 69 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -6 22 64 108 78 3 -29 -61 -60 -94 -55 44 200 MB DIV 19 21 33 50 78 91 103 129 81 59 61 62 19 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 3 13 29 55 50 68 39 116 86 129 LAND (KM) 1240 1178 1125 1066 1037 1220 1671 1391 660 162 -137 -590 -999 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.9 16.9 18.5 20.1 24.6 29.2 33.9 38.9 42.9 46.5 49.7 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 144.4 144.5 144.7 144.9 144.3 142.1 137.8 131.8 126.5 122.2 116.8 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 16 19 23 27 32 31 26 24 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -16. -36. -59. -79. -95.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 7. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -17. -30. -49. -72. -90.-102.-101. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP992015 INVEST 10/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##