* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 73 72 71 67 57 44 31 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 73 72 71 67 57 44 31 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 75 76 77 71 58 46 37 31 28 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 22 22 28 37 49 46 42 37 41 34 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 11 15 8 7 7 1 2 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 232 242 233 225 233 236 250 263 285 291 282 260 255 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.3 22.3 20.3 18.1 17.5 16.7 16.2 16.2 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 125 125 122 94 86 79 75 72 71 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 109 112 109 87 81 74 70 67 66 67 67 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 54 52 45 40 39 39 44 50 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 36 39 40 44 43 40 37 32 29 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 80 71 68 92 127 140 139 122 103 118 136 200 MB DIV 5 17 53 52 74 46 35 26 6 3 6 8 -6 700-850 TADV 14 21 9 10 11 -4 10 0 26 29 26 18 -7 LAND (KM) 808 760 742 770 792 781 1176 1671 1415 1094 914 672 337 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.3 38.1 38.9 39.6 40.8 42.3 43.6 44.7 45.5 46.1 47.3 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 61.8 60.3 57.5 54.6 47.8 39.6 32.1 26.6 22.4 19.8 16.3 12.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 19 23 25 29 30 24 18 12 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -9. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -18. -31. -44. -58. -67. -72. -71. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 3( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)