* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 66 67 67 59 44 33 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 66 67 67 59 44 33 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 65 67 65 57 44 32 22 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 6 8 17 24 31 17 28 46 60 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 5 3 3 4 2 7 13 16 14 2 SHEAR DIR 79 71 70 68 122 195 198 246 236 243 229 241 236 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 26.8 26.0 25.1 23.8 22.2 20.9 19.7 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 144 143 135 127 118 104 88 74 65 64 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 65 65 56 45 41 42 33 35 44 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 27 26 27 25 21 19 16 8 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 109 123 140 157 126 76 11 -35 -68 -142 13 -16 200 MB DIV 53 42 25 45 64 65 55 -20 9 0 45 67 93 700-850 TADV 7 7 0 -7 -11 -6 -3 13 0 -32 -38 -15 -109 LAND (KM) 494 473 463 455 462 586 868 1249 1672 1589 1162 816 530 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.0 19.5 23.0 26.5 29.8 33.2 36.6 40.0 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 153.8 153.3 152.8 152.1 151.3 149.2 147.3 145.2 142.6 139.8 136.8 133.9 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 13 18 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 23 20 26 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -11. -18. -30. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -12. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 0. -5. -8. -12. -24. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 4. -11. -22. -36. -65. -88.-112. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##