* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 37 39 40 41 42 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 37 39 40 41 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 16 11 5 13 17 12 13 17 17 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 8 2 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 166 194 222 249 238 232 246 260 253 263 273 274 286 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.7 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 167 168 166 163 159 157 153 152 158 161 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 60 59 59 61 61 61 62 57 50 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 158 144 138 111 91 49 31 -8 -20 -46 -55 -49 -38 200 MB DIV 22 8 18 20 23 3 -10 23 19 -6 5 -12 -45 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 1 5 18 10 14 10 -6 -6 -20 7 LAND (KM) 2014 2083 2161 4254 4168 3990 3644 3335 3089 2859 2636 2425 2193 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 17.6 18.9 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.2 22.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 175.9 177.2 178.5 180.0 181.6 184.6 187.6 190.2 192.4 194.6 197.0 199.7 203.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 17 17 16 15 13 11 11 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 53 55 63 82 86 82 81 77 68 54 55 55 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##