* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 75 75 68 56 44 32 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 75 75 68 56 44 32 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 77 78 77 66 54 43 35 30 28 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 21 25 35 46 41 35 34 42 42 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 9 14 15 12 6 5 0 2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 254 248 234 233 235 247 263 278 302 297 274 250 218 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.0 22.3 19.8 18.2 16.7 16.4 16.9 16.7 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 122 111 95 85 79 73 69 70 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 112 111 101 88 80 74 68 64 65 68 68 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 51 49 46 45 44 48 48 44 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 39 41 42 39 36 33 30 27 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 81 63 79 107 147 152 131 110 111 122 139 200 MB DIV 34 39 18 74 81 37 22 20 13 19 7 -2 -6 700-850 TADV 31 14 11 2 3 21 5 39 58 34 2 -36 -14 LAND (KM) 767 782 790 825 747 975 1530 1463 1038 816 709 584 304 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.3 40.1 41.2 42.3 43.9 45.4 46.0 45.5 46.6 48.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 60.1 58.0 54.6 51.3 43.6 34.8 27.2 21.7 18.5 17.3 14.5 10.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 23 27 28 31 31 25 16 8 7 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -27. -32. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -7. -19. -31. -43. -55. -64. -67. -67. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 3( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)