* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 65 62 57 49 39 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 65 62 57 49 39 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 63 59 51 41 32 24 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 7 7 12 18 29 29 26 31 56 70 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 6 6 3 1 0 -4 8 16 13 7 2 SHEAR DIR 44 48 48 130 180 208 202 232 236 231 234 236 238 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.3 25.6 24.7 23.2 21.5 20.3 19.1 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 142 140 130 123 113 98 80 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 66 63 47 39 33 33 37 44 47 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 25 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 110 129 161 158 103 61 26 -100 -127 -34 0 -35 200 MB DIV 31 24 39 66 62 64 16 -27 -8 56 60 60 36 700-850 TADV 7 -1 -6 -10 -3 1 -25 -17 -30 -3 -38 -102 -42 LAND (KM) 517 508 500 497 531 736 1070 1463 1814 1385 952 627 365 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.1 18.0 20.9 24.3 27.7 31.1 34.5 37.9 41.3 44.6 LONG(DEG W) 153.1 152.4 151.7 150.9 150.0 147.9 145.8 143.5 141.0 138.2 134.9 131.8 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 15 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 28 30 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -14. -25. -39. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -8. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. -3. -11. -21. -34. -51. -72. -96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##