* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 68 67 65 55 42 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 68 67 65 55 42 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 69 68 65 55 44 36 29 26 25 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 23 26 33 44 48 45 39 33 33 24 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 14 12 9 12 7 1 -2 0 1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 248 227 230 235 238 253 270 288 293 279 252 227 212 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.2 22.5 20.6 18.4 17.5 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.3 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 122 113 95 87 80 76 72 71 70 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 109 103 88 82 75 71 68 66 65 65 64 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 54 50 48 43 40 42 46 47 41 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 39 41 42 40 37 37 33 29 29 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 81 87 81 77 94 135 162 147 137 103 113 88 101 200 MB DIV 40 25 75 52 38 34 33 19 14 9 10 5 -9 700-850 TADV 16 10 12 9 18 28 30 40 51 36 5 -27 -26 LAND (KM) 756 790 829 753 768 1164 1677 1359 1002 773 575 346 137 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.6 39.2 40.0 40.8 42.0 43.3 44.7 45.8 46.9 47.8 49.6 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 57.8 55.2 51.6 48.1 40.0 32.2 25.9 21.1 17.6 15.2 13.5 12.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 25 28 29 30 27 21 15 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. -4. -8. -9. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -15. -28. -38. -50. -60. -65. -67. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)