* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 17 19 24 29 32 36 41 46 48 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 17 19 24 29 32 36 41 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 18 20 22 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 32 30 26 20 13 9 15 16 22 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 270 273 277 282 292 311 238 257 235 269 276 285 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 166 170 171 173 173 167 164 164 161 163 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 166 171 173 173 173 172 162 157 155 149 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 62 63 65 67 68 64 65 62 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -18 -19 -18 -20 -18 -25 -31 -67 -72 -94 -73 -65 200 MB DIV 23 36 27 17 20 19 33 38 28 24 26 44 54 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -9 -4 2 8 2 -1 -9 -4 -7 -2 4 LAND (KM) 914 891 893 846 733 624 568 290 69 144 154 242 408 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.6 16.7 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 51.1 52.5 54.0 55.4 58.0 60.6 63.0 65.3 67.2 69.0 70.0 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 42 45 50 66 80 69 86 112 78 89 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 1. 9. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 4. 9. 12. 16. 21. 26. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED