* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 66 63 59 46 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 66 63 59 46 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 67 64 59 49 39 31 26 23 23 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 28 33 36 47 52 41 35 26 21 21 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 9 10 12 9 3 1 0 1 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 234 235 240 242 247 262 276 294 285 269 246 221 264 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 25.0 22.3 22.2 19.6 17.6 16.8 15.8 15.7 15.2 15.2 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 111 94 94 84 77 74 71 70 68 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 100 87 87 78 73 69 67 66 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 50 47 45 43 42 43 47 47 40 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 40 41 41 39 37 35 32 28 27 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 78 75 74 87 105 143 148 129 93 74 96 79 72 200 MB DIV 25 59 61 49 47 44 18 12 18 18 8 -2 -34 700-850 TADV 17 6 3 6 39 22 54 47 45 45 18 -31 7 LAND (KM) 758 799 721 774 929 1406 1575 1148 862 578 312 174 216 LAT (DEG N) 38.8 39.6 40.3 40.9 41.4 42.7 44.0 45.5 47.1 48.6 50.0 50.2 49.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 54.8 51.6 47.9 44.1 36.2 28.6 23.1 19.5 16.4 13.4 11.0 8.9 STM SPEED (KT) 22 26 27 29 30 29 24 18 14 12 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -11. -24. -36. -48. -59. -68. -73. -75. -81. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)