* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 19 22 27 32 34 37 42 46 48 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 19 22 27 32 34 37 42 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 21 22 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 27 24 23 20 8 14 13 21 16 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 4 -1 3 2 0 -1 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 261 269 280 284 287 292 286 256 245 249 279 280 257 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 165 169 171 172 168 166 164 163 163 164 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 167 168 171 172 171 164 158 153 151 147 150 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 63 63 68 67 69 66 62 61 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -37 -30 -29 -31 -40 -45 -65 -96 -113 -127 -97 -42 200 MB DIV 36 20 13 7 19 26 26 33 23 19 29 30 50 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -3 5 6 2 3 -6 -1 0 -2 2 6 LAND (KM) 961 968 902 813 744 711 487 274 196 266 329 460 766 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.8 17.9 19.0 20.0 20.9 22.0 23.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.3 53.7 55.0 56.3 58.7 61.1 63.2 65.0 66.6 67.9 68.4 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 43 50 63 69 72 62 74 92 79 50 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 1. 9. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 7. 12. 14. 17. 22. 26. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED