* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 81 78 68 56 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 79 82 81 78 68 56 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 82 80 75 61 46 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 19 18 29 32 48 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 3 5 6 4 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 121 160 204 218 226 227 236 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.9 24.5 22.1 19.9 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 139 131 128 114 90 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -51.2 -51.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 66 59 52 44 45 46 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 153 153 131 116 76 55 37 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 73 74 52 62 47 50 70 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -3 7 -7 -19 -55 -58 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 590 605 660 767 942 1466 1630 923 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 17.0 18.1 20.3 22.5 28.0 33.3 39.6 46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.7 149.7 148.7 147.5 146.3 143.7 140.4 135.1 128.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 20 25 28 30 34 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 28 29 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -27. -29. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -13. -25. -34. -40. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 6. 3. -7. -19. -36. -58. -71. -84. -96.-109. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##