* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 17 19 23 32 39 44 51 55 58 60 63 V (KT) LAND 15 16 17 19 23 32 39 44 51 55 58 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 15 15 16 16 17 20 23 25 28 31 34 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 5 6 4 7 6 3 10 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -6 -3 -3 1 5 10 SHEAR DIR 72 44 34 20 60 138 190 229 23 30 35 25 32 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 156 155 153 155 157 157 157 156 156 156 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 80 79 78 75 72 67 62 55 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 0 -8 -12 -22 -25 -13 -14 10 31 50 45 200 MB DIV 4 13 26 30 35 44 24 47 14 26 22 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1551 1610 1680 1735 1766 1833 1915 1983 2060 2119 2146 2174 2200 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.5 115.8 117.1 118.4 120.6 122.5 124.2 125.9 127.4 128.2 128.8 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 29 22 22 23 25 23 18 14 14 17 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 25. 32. 37. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 24. 29. 36. 40. 43. 45. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##