* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC PROXY USED * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 62 56 41 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 62 56 41 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 66 61 55 43 34 27 23 21 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 35 38 43 49 49 40 41 42 36 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 7 14 13 6 -1 -3 0 1 5 1 23 SHEAR DIR 236 236 245 250 248 271 287 292 273 261 248 253 318 SST (C) 26.3 24.7 21.5 21.9 20.2 18.2 17.5 16.2 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 109 91 92 86 80 76 71 70 72 70 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 100 84 85 80 75 71 66 65 67 65 61 62 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 46 44 43 44 45 43 40 34 30 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 40 40 40 35 34 32 29 27 28 27 18 850 MB ENV VOR 74 76 88 96 117 146 128 120 90 88 93 -9 -74 200 MB DIV 61 58 42 41 57 31 7 7 11 13 -2 -18 -30 700-850 TADV 14 -11 13 47 14 73 59 42 19 -12 -18 -56 -42 LAND (KM) 794 711 748 914 1138 1713 1248 985 826 590 358 286 241 LAT (DEG N) 39.6 40.4 41.3 42.0 42.6 43.5 44.7 46.0 47.1 47.8 48.3 48.8 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 51.2 47.5 43.7 39.9 31.6 24.5 20.8 18.8 15.5 10.2 9.0 10.5 STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 29 29 30 28 21 11 10 15 11 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 25 CX,CY: 23/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -10. -10. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -14. -29. -42. -53. -65. -74. -78. -84. -97. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)