* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 17 19 24 30 33 35 40 45 47 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 17 19 24 30 33 35 40 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 19 20 22 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 27 26 25 13 11 11 16 17 16 15 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 0 1 2 3 0 -2 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 263 273 280 279 282 295 260 257 231 261 258 266 227 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 167 169 172 170 166 164 163 163 163 161 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 167 168 168 171 166 158 153 149 147 148 149 144 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 65 67 67 69 69 65 60 59 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -43 -37 -36 -36 -49 -54 -89 -93 -106 -105 -93 -76 200 MB DIV 15 0 -4 9 18 21 38 37 28 7 43 47 39 700-850 TADV -7 -2 6 7 4 8 5 -5 0 -1 -1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 986 931 843 787 754 660 444 311 279 333 452 631 989 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.7 24.6 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 53.5 54.8 56.0 57.2 59.5 61.5 63.2 64.7 66.0 66.8 66.8 64.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 8 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 49 60 64 77 61 56 68 82 70 39 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 2. 10. 18. 24. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 4. 10. 13. 15. 20. 25. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/07/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED