* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 75 72 68 55 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 77 75 72 68 55 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 75 70 64 49 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 15 21 23 25 33 46 67 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 9 14 12 10 8 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 185 213 216 212 214 212 215 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.1 22.9 20.5 18.0 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 129 126 120 99 74 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -50.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 60 52 51 47 48 47 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 151 141 134 113 51 63 62 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 77 68 81 81 51 84 111 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 4 -14 -29 -47 -53 -154 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 629 683 809 1008 1251 1828 1136 682 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 19.1 21.0 23.7 26.4 32.0 38.4 44.9 51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.4 148.3 147.2 146.2 145.1 141.9 137.3 132.8 128.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 22 25 29 30 34 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -16. -25. -32. -34. -36. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -21. -44. -60. -72. -79. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -3. -7. -20. -35. -52. -81.-100.-117.-132.-146. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##