* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 32 42 49 55 65 67 71 73 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 32 42 49 55 65 67 71 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 33 38 43 50 57 63 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 5 4 2 5 3 5 7 10 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -4 0 1 5 9 13 SHEAR DIR 12 351 356 26 75 165 219 293 28 8 360 2 299 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 155 153 155 157 157 158 157 156 155 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 76 76 74 70 63 58 54 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 13 13 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -3 -8 -15 -18 -28 -23 -19 0 22 45 41 30 200 MB DIV 19 30 32 41 35 34 35 19 30 53 36 17 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 0 0 -4 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1605 1672 1736 1756 1785 1860 1937 2017 2080 2114 2112 2098 2077 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.3 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.7 117.0 118.2 119.4 121.5 123.5 125.3 126.9 127.9 128.4 128.8 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 22 23 23 25 19 15 14 16 19 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 12. 15. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. 29. 35. 45. 48. 51. 53. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##