* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 57 51 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 57 51 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 57 52 46 35 28 24 21 19 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 37 38 44 48 50 44 39 43 46 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 1 10 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 250 253 255 265 276 292 289 289 286 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 22.2 22.1 20.4 19.7 18.0 17.1 17.4 18.4 18.8 18.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 94 94 87 84 78 74 74 74 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 87 87 82 79 73 69 68 68 67 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 42 42 42 44 44 39 34 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 37 36 33 27 24 24 22 17 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 84 90 118 148 128 128 93 116 109 93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 19 32 31 25 15 1 7 -7 -8 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 29 22 38 31 34 14 0 -5 -31 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 736 799 966 1224 1513 1503 1084 763 519 359 251 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 40.8 41.4 42.0 42.5 44.0 44.9 44.4 43.2 42.7 43.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.3 47.4 43.5 39.2 34.9 27.7 22.4 18.4 15.5 13.5 12.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 30 31 32 30 23 16 13 10 6 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 27 CX,CY: 26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -13. -14. -16. -21. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -22. -38. -53. -63. -74. -85. -95.-101.-107. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)