* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912015 10/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 16 16 20 24 28 30 35 39 45 46 V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 16 16 20 24 28 30 35 39 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 18 19 20 22 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 31 29 26 19 10 10 10 19 12 20 16 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 0 4 2 2 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 273 281 284 286 296 283 251 209 238 253 285 288 240 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 171 172 172 168 166 163 163 163 163 165 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 168 171 171 169 162 156 150 148 147 148 151 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 9 700-500 MB RH 60 63 65 68 69 68 68 66 60 56 58 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -40 -37 -38 -43 -53 -77 -95 -103 -111 -111 -93 -61 200 MB DIV -12 -6 12 30 42 20 28 46 16 -8 41 64 35 700-850 TADV -2 7 8 5 7 9 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1 15 LAND (KM) 927 845 784 752 746 527 348 287 273 344 373 541 847 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.3 19.4 20.4 20.9 21.6 22.5 24.4 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.6 54.9 56.2 57.4 58.6 60.7 62.6 64.1 65.4 66.8 67.9 68.5 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 50 62 64 68 67 55 63 76 85 69 43 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 2. 10. 19. 24. 30. 35. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. 0. 4. 8. 10. 15. 19. 25. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 10/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 149.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 10/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 10/07/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED