* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 53 61 71 76 81 83 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 53 61 71 76 81 83 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 47 54 67 83 94 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 3 1 3 4 4 6 5 5 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 -4 4 11 11 8 SHEAR DIR 21 30 29 37 73 242 287 30 66 36 2 7 234 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 154 156 159 161 161 161 161 161 160 158 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 77 78 76 74 70 65 57 56 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -14 -21 -24 -26 -37 -25 -20 -4 15 49 51 56 200 MB DIV 34 26 15 11 18 43 52 21 49 41 36 43 43 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 2 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1773 1834 1886 1937 1996 2116 2240 2362 2466 2528 2414 2260 2098 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 118.0 119.5 120.8 122.1 124.6 127.0 129.2 131.0 132.3 133.4 134.6 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 20 24 28 22 15 19 26 30 28 22 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 28. 36. 46. 51. 56. 58. 57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##