* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 49 59 67 76 80 81 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 49 59 67 76 80 81 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 43 48 56 70 85 95 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 0 3 5 3 3 4 3 2 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 -6 -3 0 -5 5 6 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 31 33 174 228 225 300 77 140 68 36 187 203 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 158 160 162 162 162 161 160 157 153 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 74 75 75 75 73 71 68 59 54 52 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 9 10 13 14 18 19 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -30 -33 -45 -41 -28 -17 9 44 68 71 79 200 MB DIV 38 29 12 29 36 63 51 43 56 45 36 31 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1770 1818 1880 1943 2010 2141 2291 2426 2510 2365 2212 2036 1845 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.4 120.9 122.2 123.5 126.1 128.6 130.8 132.5 133.8 135.0 136.4 137.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 26 22 15 16 26 29 26 22 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 12. 14. 19. 22. 21. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 24. 34. 42. 51. 56. 56. 59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##