* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 72 58 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 83 72 58 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 73 60 47 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 34 45 55 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 13 16 8 5 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 235 220 225 220 229 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.5 23.2 21.7 20.7 17.0 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 115 102 87 77 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -51.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 50 53 70 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 126 107 67 63 77 90 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 144 67 56 99 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 29 2 10 64 101 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1451 1759 1584 1277 676 -117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 28.2 31.4 34.8 38.2 46.3 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 144.0 142.9 140.9 138.9 134.4 130.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 33 34 36 38 41 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 33 CX,CY: 11/ 31 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -11. -18. -33. -44. -50. -56. -59. -60. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -27. -40. -56. -74. -88. -98.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -13. -12. -7. 2. 14. 33. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -32. -47. -71. -91.-108.-127.-141.-148.-150.-145. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##