* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 10/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 45 54 61 64 67 70 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 36 45 54 61 64 67 70 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 40 49 60 72 84 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 4 3 4 9 9 15 11 12 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -3 -2 -8 -4 -4 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 71 34 354 2 8 50 96 71 67 74 61 38 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 161 162 164 164 162 161 159 156 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 77 78 79 77 75 69 65 64 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -29 -34 -37 -31 -20 -21 -22 -7 30 62 60 68 200 MB DIV 34 37 29 25 43 57 40 51 59 57 38 54 60 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2032 2126 2230 2319 2413 2604 2581 2338 2162 2014 1893 1822 1748 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.5 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.7 124.3 125.9 127.4 130.4 133.2 135.5 137.3 138.9 140.1 140.6 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 10 8 7 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 44 38 26 29 30 38 29 30 30 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 25. 34. 41. 44. 47. 50. 53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##